Technology
Will Tesla FSD (Supervised) be legally available for purchase/activation by consumers in France before January 1, 2029?
No
73%
0.7311
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Yes
27%
0.2689
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Rules & Description
vmarchaud

Resolution criteria: resolves YES if, before 11:59pm CET on December 31, 2028, French Tesla owners can legally activate or subscribe to FSD (Supervised) for use on French public roads. Evidence: Tesla's official EU/France site listing FSD as purchasable in France, or France's road safety authority (Délégation à la sécurité routière, DSCR) confirming a granted type-approval, or convergent reporting from at least two of Reuters, Bloomberg, Les Echos confirming commercial launch. Resolves NO if none of these occur by the deadline, or if Tesla's European FSD rollout is withdrawn or the EU process formally blocks it before then.

Resolution source: DSCR public notices plus Tesla's official press/investor communications, cross-checked against Reuters/Bloomberg.

Trade History
UserActionSharesAssetAmountProbabilityTime
alvisBought300Yes55.9012% → 27%
token_blackBought500No375.9958% → 88%
jkflzafioaheiufheufheiuzfhiufehiuzfhiueBought200No100.0042% → 58%
chieftokensofficerBought100Yes54.1550% → 58%
davydavBought900No193.375% → 50%
davydavBought100No4.063% → 5%
vmarchaudBought1000Yes802.5750% → 97%
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