About Predimarkt

Predimarkt is a play-money prediction market platform for curious minds.

It's a place to learn what prediction markets are, how they work in practice, and how they help reveal people's beliefs about the likelihood of future events. Here you can explore questions about the future by creating and participating in your own markets, observing how probabilities shift over time, and gaining insight into how collective expectations form and evolve.

What is a prediction market?

A prediction market is a system where people forecast outcomes by trading on what they think will happen. It works in a way that's similar to a stock market: instead of buying shares in companies, you're buying and selling "shares" in possible outcomes. The price of those shares reflects how likely the crowd thinks something is to happen.

Instead of simply saying "I think this will happen," you back your view with a decision — buying or selling based on your belief. Prices then adjust as people trade, forming a real-time, crowd-driven probability. Over time, this process often produces accurate forecasts — not because any single person is right, but because many perspectives combine into one signal.

How is this different from betting?

At a glance, it may look similar — but the purpose and mechanics are quite different. Prediction markets combine estimating probabilities with taking on risk, where potential rewards are tied to how accurate your judgments are. The focus is on:

  • reasoning under uncertainty
  • reacting to new information
  • improving your judgment over time

Unlike traditional betting, where you place a bet and wait for the outcome, prediction markets are dynamic. You can adjust your position over time — buying more shares or selling the ones you hold as new information becomes available. This turns participation into an ongoing process of updating beliefs, where both risk and reward reflect how well you anticipate what happens next.

On Predimarkt, all of this happens using play money. There's no real-world value at stake — you can't earn real money, but you also can't lose it. This keeps things safe and accessible, allowing you to focus on learning, experimenting, and improving your judgment rather than worrying about financial risk.

Learn by doing

Predimarkt is designed as a hands-on way to understand:

  • probability and uncertainty
  • how "crowd wisdom" emerges
  • how information influences expectations

You don't need any prior experience. Just pick a question, make your prediction, and see how it evolves.

Simple by design

Predimarkt is a non-commercial, educational, independently run project.

The platform is intentionally lightweight:

  • no real money
  • no data collection
  • no ads

You can get started with a secure passkey and a nickname — no email required. This keeps things simple and minimizes the personal information you share. It also means we won't contact you with emails. The trade-off is that the platform can't send notifications or help recover your account if you lose your passkey.

What Predimarkt is — and isn't

Predimarkt is:

  • an educational and exploratory platform
  • a space for curiosity, discussion, and informed guessing

Predimarkt is not:

  • a gambling service
  • a financial exchange
  • an investment or advisory platform

Nothing on the site should be interpreted as financial advice or a real-world opportunity.

Join the experiment

Predimarkt is an open invitation to think a bit more carefully about the future.

Create markets. Trade on your beliefs. See how your expectations compare with everyone else.